Information exhibits the Bitcoin realized volatility has plunged to multi-year lows this month, implying that the chaotic 2022 could be seeking to finish on a extra quiet observe.
Bitcoin Brief-Time period Realized Volatility Is Now Lowest Since October 2020
As per the most recent weekly report from Glassnode, BTC has been fairly silent on this month of December, in comparison with what was a really chaotic remainder of the 12 months. The related indicator right here is the “annualized realized volatility,” which measures the usual deviation of each day returns from the imply for the Bitcoin market.
When the worth of this metric is excessive, it means the worth of the crypto has been displaying giant each day fluctuations not too long ago. Such values suggest the crypto at present includes excessive buying and selling threat. However, low volatility values counsel the BTC market has displayed a fairly stale worth motion not too long ago, with day-to-day returns being fairly low.
The indicator might be taken over a rolling window primarily based on any size of time, however within the context of the present subject, probably the most helpful variations of the metric are the 1-week, the 2-week, and the month-to-month variations. Now, here’s a chart that exhibits how the 7-day transferring common annualized realized volatility of Bitcoin has modified for these short-term home windows over the previous few years:
The 7-day MA values of those metrics appear to have gone down in current days | Supply: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 50, 2022
As you may see within the above graph, the Bitcoin annualized realized volatility over these timespans has been at decently excessive ranges throughout most of 2022. The 12 months has been marked by a number of extremely risky occasions just like the Terra USD (UST) collapse, the 3AC chapter and the next domino impact on different lenders, and the most recent FTX debacle that has additionally introduced recent contagion with it.
On this ultimate month of December, nonetheless, the short-term volatility appears to have taken a plunge to cycle lows because the asset’s worth has principally been buying and selling sideways. Now, the 1-week annualized realized volatility is simply 22%, whereas the 2-week model is right down to solely 28%. The final time Bitcoin noticed such low values in these metrics was again in October 2020, earlier than this cycle’s bull run started.
Appears to be like like the worth of the crypto has seen a pointy surge throughout the previous 24 hours | Supply: BTCUSD on TradingView
On the time of writing, Bitcoin’s worth floats round $17.4k, up 2% within the final week. Over the previous month, the asset’s buyers have collected 3% in earnings. The above chart shows the development within the worth of the coin over the past 5 days.
